I'm confident the South will play its part in the World Cup 2011.  We'll get some pool games and the locals will turn out in large numbers.  We will be good hosts and humble winners. But I'd like to know for sure that there is somewhere in New Zealand to play the final.

I'm sceptical about the waterfront stadium option because there isn't enough certainty about whether it can be built on time and what it will cost.  But I can't understand why everyone in Auckland doesn't want the waterfront stadium when it's been offered to them free. The Government has told them if they choose the waterfront option, the Government will pay the lot, probably about $1 billion.  If they choose Eden Park, Auckland will have to pay for most it, probably through their rates.

However, a single fact remains, New Zealand's Prime Minister promised world rugby bosses we could lay on a well run world cup in 2011.  Failure is not an option, and criticism should be avoided if at all possible.  We must make the World Cup work.  If the All Blacks win in 2007, the whole nation will get behind it.

One thing is for sure, we will all be paying forever for a $1 billion stadium, whether it's regularly full of 60,000 people or not.  The proposed airport and tourist taxes will collect only $30 - $40 million per year which will hardly be enough to clean the windows, let alone pay the interest and the upkeep.  It's a visionary idea, but we need to know who will pay the bills. 

In the end if the Government goes for Eden Park, they could use some of the spare billion to help build the new Carisbrook.

Child Poverty Worsens under Labour

The proportion of children living in severe hardship has grown from 18 % of all children in 2000 to 26 % of all children in 2004 according to a report from the Ministry of Social Development. Schools in state housing areas will bear the brunt of this huge increase in hardship. The proportion of children in state houses who live in severe hardship has more than doubled from 19 per cent in 2000 to 45 per cent in 2004.

The same schools often have high Maori and Pacific populations. Among Pacific families, the proportion of children suffering severe hardship rose from 16 to 30 percent and 11 to 20 percent for Maori.  The number of Maori and Pacific children living in severe hardship almost doubled between 2000 and 2004.  Child poverty is growing and the growth is concentrated in state housing areas. 

These figures should jolt the complacency endemic in the education establishment. Whatever challenges there are in dealing with underachievement now, these numbers are a warning the challenge will get harder. A useful summary of this information by the Child Poverty Action Group can be viewed here.

NCEA: Truth At Last

Buried deep in obscure NZQA  paperwork we find confirmation of the ugly truth that young New Zealanders have been sold short by NCEA external; assessment. The report is called "Proposed analysis of item response data for 2006 NQF external assessment round".  It says, "Nonetheless, in the medium to long term very substantial improvements in reliability, validity and efficiency of the assessments can be expected on the basis of detailed item analysis as proposed here". 

So the exams have been unreliable, invalid and inefficient. NZQA refused to use formal psychometric methods to make sure exams are fair to students.  Finally, after years of pressure, NZQA are running a pilot for the 2006 exams on at least one tool that will make a difference.  It's a case of culpable negligence on the part of a bureaucracy obsessed with ideology rather than intellectual rigour.

Bank Robbers in the Staff Room

A teacher who spent three years in jail for a bank robbery may be doing a good job, but the profession needs to ask whether the public will respect a profession that register people with serious convictions.  In other professions a serious conviction involving a jail term is enough to exclude anyone from registration or recognition.  Why not in teaching?

 I welcome the public debate about appropriate standards for the teaching profession.  The Teachers Council can contribute by letting us know its bottom line - what kind of behaviour automatically excludes a person from the profession when sexual abuse, violence, drug dealing and bank robbery are acceptable.. 

Is the Student Slice Too Big?

Do New Zealand students get a fair deal from the tertiary education budget?  OECD figures show they do. At 1.7 per cent of GDP New Zealand spends more on tertiary education, than the OECD average of  1.3 per cent of GDP, and more than Australia, Canada, UK and the US.  According to the OECD (click here) 44 per cent of our tertiary expenditure goes on financial aid to students, well above Australia at 35 per cent, Canada at 19 per cent and the UK at 24 per cent.

Higher quality tertiary education is expensive. I want to hear your views on whether new funding in tertiary education should go to increasing quality or further reducing costs to students.  A little bit spread around won't make much difference to either, so which is more important?

A population expert told the Southern Past and Futures Forum last week that 10,000 extra people in a region means 3700 new households, $93 million more retail spending and 7500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete.  Obviously a 10,000-population loss has the opposite effect – 3700 less households and so on.

In the last 15 years Southland’s population has been a roller coaster. In 1987 there was a big population loss when the railway post office and meat industry was restructured.  Southland recovered and even had a small gain in 1992.  Then people started moving away again until 2001 when the Free Fees Scheme at SIT brought thousands of extra young people to town over three years, and the economy boomed.  The big increase of young people brought a temporary halt to the ageing process affecting the whole country.  Between 1991 and 2001 New Zealand lost numbers in all age groups up to 34 except a slip in 5 to 14 year olds and gained population in all age groups 35 and over.  The same trend happened in Southland with bigger losses in the under 35’s. After 2001 the 20 to 25 age group increased for the only time in decades.

So now long term trends of losing population have come back over the last few years Southland needs another shot in the arm.  The population expert told us that we need another boost like the Free Fees about every 5 years.  He said almost no smaller regional centre in New Zealand, Australian and the United States had turned around an ageing population.  This only example was a small US city that built a casino. 

We’ve done it once, we can do it again so let’s get looking for the next big idea, and any small one that gets us back on track. 

They Got Away With It

In the heat of controversy in parliament this week the media missed the issue at the heart of it all.  Labour spent about $2.8 million on the 2005 election campaign when the legal limit was $2.3 million, and they got away with it.  And they could do it again.  The police investigated but didn't prosecute because they did not understand the law, and they appeared to be concerned a prosecution might upset the election results.  MP's who overspend their campaign limit get chucked out of Parliament, and prosecuting the government might have had the same results.  Helen Clark has shown the election campaign spending cap can't be enforced.  Political parties have never before considered breaching the cap, and certainly not in such a calculated manner.  Helen Clark has called the bluff and won.

Smart Government

Labour's ingenuity for avoiding accountability knows no bounds.  The money Labour has been forced to pay back came from Helen Clark's Leader's budget to pay for Labour's parliamentary activities.  The  overspend was approved by Heather Simpson, the Chief of Staff in Helen Clark's office.  The Speaker has ruled National can't ask questions about Simpson's activities despite the fact she sits in the Prime Minister's office, on a large public salary and all her costs are met by the taxpayer.  Apparently when Ms Simpson does anything dodgy Helen Clark says Simpson is not the Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister's office, but an official in the Office of the Leader of the Parliamentary Labour Party and Helen Clark has no ministerial responsibility for the Labour Party.  So the second most powerful person in the land is beyond any public accountability.

It's Worth The Fight

National has fought hard on this issue because it betrays the character of the government.  This week revealed Labour's fierce and ugly sense of entitlement to power, control and public money.  They broke the rules and then used all the power and privilege of public office to deny wrongdoing, bully law enforcement agencies and then legislate to cover it up.   Labour believes it is entitled to this money and then to use it in any way to further Labour's interest, not the public interest.   Labour's sense of entitlement effects a thousand decisions that aren't illegal or spectacular, they believe they are entitled to billions of dollars of excess tax and they can use it.  The fact that they still believe they did nothing wrong shows how deeply entrenched the sense of entitlement is.

Study confirms what teachers know   

A Christchurch-based longitudinal study on 1265 children from birth confirms that good management of severe behavioural children has big payoffs for the wider community.  The subjects in this study are now 30 years old.  Dr David Ferguson who runs the study says conduct disorder between the ages of 6 and 10 is the strongest indicator of future problems with prison, addiction, suicide and violence. Schools are in the best position to identify these children but they can't be left on their own to deal with them. Schools need more options to get these students on the right track.
 
We Know Their Names

 

While behavioural problems look huge to the school dealing with them, nationally the problem is manageable. Teachers I talk to tell me that they know the names of the difficult students in their area and so do the social agencies. In one town I was told that of 11 children in the CYFS home, 8 had the same grandparents. 10 years ago government set out a blueprint for improving mental health services, at a time when the problems looked overwhelming. Services and skills today are much better.  Severe behaviour needs the same approach - long-term consistent improvements in services, skills and pathways.  It's one useful thing Steve Maharey could do in his unspectacular tenure. 
 
Integrated Schools Too Integrated?

 

While government policy is that all schools are the same, parents and children are sensitive to diversity and part of that diversity is integrated schools.  Government policy on integrated schools is confused.  On the one hand the Ministry is more aggressive about zoning integrated schools as if they are part of the state network.  Integrated schools are not obliged to institute geographical zones and they should not be bullied into it. 

 

On the other hand, Steve Maharey appears to have loosened up on roll caps on integrated schools.  At least two integrated schools have been given significant roll increases recently against the wishes of surrounding state schools.  National supports more choice and we applaud this move.  In the long run integrated schools should continue to develop and assert their distinctiveness. They should not cave in to Government pressure for sameness. 
 
Tertiary

 

A growing number of redundancies in universities and polytechs demonstrate that the days of endless growth are over and no amount of government funding or clever strategy can save institutions from market pressures.  The next logical step is consolidation and rationalisation as universities and polytechs adjust to fault or declining enrolments.  

 

Consolidation and specialisation is a predictable result in an EFTS system where change is driven, as it should be, by student choices.  Tertiary institutions will now have to sort out their strengths and weaknesses and some long talked about specialisation may develop momentum. Cullen's proposed funding changes are likely to hold up progress by holding out false hope that changes can be avoided.

Helen Clark's New Low Public Standards

New Zealand politics has been free of the faintest whiff of corruption.  Last week Helen Clark endorsed and protected Phillip Field MP who retained several Thai people to paint several of his houses in return for help with immigration permits. Imagine the outrage if a millionaire National MP had used cheap and probably illegal labour for personal benefit in return for political favours.  The Ingram report outlines all the details, including evidence that Field might have broken the minimum wages laws and tax laws.  Helen Clark has set new low standards of public behaviour of Members of Parliament.  If Phillip Field can behave like this with no consequences, it's a licence for corruption by MP's.

Wage Price Spiral?

New Zealand has had 4 per cent inflation only once since the late 80's, and that was in 2001 when the dollar dropped under 40 cents. People have forgotten what it's like. The Clutha Southland electorate rates 35th out of 65 seats for average income.  The average pay rise in the past few years was about 3 per cent, so 4 per cent inflation is going to cut into people's  purchasing power.  It is therefore likely that wage and salary earners might want to claw back these losses.  Power prices have gone up and they feel the sharp bite of inflation every time they fill the car with petrol. The labour market is still tight and so there is a risk that inflation could push wage rises,  which in turn feed inflation.  Interest rates have stopped rising for now, but the Reserve Bank has allowed inflation to go outside the 3 per cent limit it has agreed with the Government. It may take higher interest rates for longer to beat a wage-price spiral.

What Happens to Your Money
 
It won't be hard for National to have a better environment policy than Labour.  In 1999, Labour attacked National's energy policy on the basis that it drove prices up.  In 2000 and 2002 they introduced legislation to reform the sector.  Electricity prices have risen twice as fast since.  But it's not the only example of a Labour policy achieving the opposite of its intended objectives.  Labour have spent $100 million on energy efficiency since 2000, and progress on energy efficiency has halved. We have been told Australia and the United States are the bad guys on global warming because they didn't sign Kyoto, and we are the good guys because we did.  In fact, New Zealand carbon emissions have grown more than twice as fast as the United States and Australia. After six years of Labour's policy to prefer new electricity from renewable sources like wind and hydro, more electricity than ever is being generated from coal and less than ever from those clean, renewable sources. National will produce a discussion document on the environment later this year.

National Sets National Direction

Helen Clark is trying harder and harder to sound like National.  A few weeks ago there was talk of a crackdown on welfare after the Kahui murders.  This week, Dr Cullen has made broad hints about personal tax cuts.  And Labour will vote with National in favour of the NZ First bill removing references to the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi from the law.  Why not cut out the middle man?

Trades Trouble

Trade training is in trouble because the Government has focused on numbers rather than quality. This week's sacking of the Plumbers, Gasfitters and Drainlayers Registration Board is an indicator of the tensions under the surface as all trades grapple with skill shortages. Labour has focused on big headline numbers. Each Budget they announce thousands of places - often the same thousands as they announced the previous year. The Plumbers Board wouldn't play the game of meeting Labour's requirements for big numbers. They set exams that many apprentices failed because they insisted on high standards.

Australian Standards Higher?

The Plumbers Board planned to use the Australian plumbers' qualification instead of the New Zealand one, and apparently most of the industry agreed. One reason was that the board had no faith in the New Zealand standards, and another was that more and more of the big clients in the construction industry are run out of Australia and they prefer Australian certification. So the Aussies are beating us in the market for setting skill levels. I don't like it. We should be organised enough and smart enough to set our own standards - and they should be as good as the Aussies.

Skilled Lessons from Agriculture

Publicly funded education and skills training are the principle tools any government can use to influence productivity. There are no large pools of unused labour to propel economic growth, so from here it's all hard work to raise the productivity of each person already in the workforce. Agriculture has been a star, with productivity growth twice the rest of the economy in the last decade. In that time the number of people getting relevant qualifications has dropped, which shows that qualifications aren't the same as skills.

Where Your Money Goes

Labour spends $140 million each year running tertiary education and trades training - up from $40 million just five years ago. But they can't count the students. I have spent months trying to find out how many young people who enrol in the Modern Apprenticeships actually complete the apprenticeship. Dr Cullen won't tell me. I believe the information he has shows very high dropout rates. The taxpayer shells out more than $2000 per apprentice to a "co-ordinator", who is meant to make sure the apprentices stay on. I have also found out that the Government can't count how many students finish the university and polytechnic courses they started. One official piece of paper says the system can show a student completing a course they were never enrolled in. So your money is in good hands.

The Gay News

Why does Labour go to so much trouble to tell everyone that their new Member of Parliament to replace Jim Sutton is gay, and that the next one is a unionist and the next one after that is gay? Who cares?

I was reminded last week how different the seasons are in different parts of the country by Parekura Horomia the Minister of Maori Affairs. His electorate covers the East Coast and he said all the bad weather has disrupted lambing. So their lambing is 7-8 weeks ahead of ours. It’s been a tough winter for the north islanders but judging by their lambing dates, a short one. I'll bet it’s feeling like a long way to spring in South Canterbury.

But we can overdo concern about the weather. I heard a report on the Farming Show with a headline that the hard winter will continue. In fact, they said that the temperature would be close to the average for the next three months with some outbreaks of colder winter weather. I think that means a normal winter and the usual tight early spring.

Southland farmers are perfecting the art of the mad rush from lambing in September through to heavy lambs in January.  But the spring is going to be a mad rush for some dairy farmers. Wet or fine, it will be a nightmare on the farms where I see a few unfinished milking sheds around as calving dates close in.

There is no simple way to get the cows calved and milked while a shed is finished off. So, however cold and wet it gets in the milking shed or the lambing paddock in August and September, there will be a few dairy farmers doing it harder.

It’s a mistake to label the Kahui child murders as a Maori issue. Two children have been murdered, someone did it and they need to be caught and locked up for a long time. It’s not the fault of government agencies, either. The people to blame are those who killed the babies and anyone who let it happen. No excuses, no explanations, just personal responsibility.

The same searchlight that uncovers the murderers will also penetrate the darkest recesses of the culture of dependency – people on benefits in state houses; living destructive semi-criminal lives without end and without hope. When the investigation is done and the perpetrators are locked up it will be time to attack the rot. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent by the Ministry of Social Development on managing individual cases with workshops, strategies and – wait for it – “Personal Development Plans”. The politically correct way to talk about welfare these days is to call welfare spending "investment". That makes it sound like the government wants to give you a benefit. So young people don't take the rules seriously.

So it’s too easy to get away with half a dozen or more adults living in a state house on cheap rents and all collecting benefits. The fallout from the Kahui case should see the end of the politically correct nonsense that welfare spending is an investment. It’s money we all contribute to help people in real need, not an investment in a lifestyle.