Someone once said they could predict anything except the future. we can see every day in the south just how wrong the experts were when they predicted that primary production was on the way out and film fashion and hi tech industry were the future.

As I get around the country in the run- up to the election its clear the economy is doing better in the South than most other places. Other dairy based provinces are doing almost as well but the larger urban areas have a hangover. Too much of the economic growth in the last 9 years was driven by borrowing and rising house prices. The people who partied the hardest have the biggest hangover. High prices for our agricultural production and dairy in particular have saved the country from a nasty recession

The outlook isn't too bad either, with more people willing to pay higher prices for our food products and the NZ dollar coming down. This is exactly the opposite of what the experts predicted 8 years ago

About eight years ago the government ran a big conference in Auckland called the Knowledge Wave.  The theory was that New Zealand wouldn't survive on primary production and fast growing industries would take its place, industries like fashion, film, design and IT. The hip, cool fast growing industries have made some progress but the fact is while NZ has some brilliant people in each, they are still small and struggling to grow.  Hundreds of millions have been spent trying to get these new industries going. 

I never liked the idea that somehow producing food was dumb and we needed much smarter people to do smarter things. Agriculture isn't just about milk powder or meat.  It's about people who know what they are doing.  We have a particular set of skills and knowledge about grass farming in a temperate climate that other people just don't have.  It will take years to build up the same culture of success in biotechnology or film making or IT.  And then it will take years to turn these into multi billion dollar industries.  It would be great if these industries succeeded but it shouldn't be at the cost of downgrading agriculture.

Agriculture has succeeded because it has changed fast enough to keep up with world markets. We don't sit round waiting for the latest government strategy to tell us what to do. That's why I'm confident the south will deal with the changes underway in the meat industry.  It's happening for the right reasons, farmers looking for better returns on our precious land and water.  Competition from the diary industry will make our sheep industry strong and leaner.  And with up to 20 per cent less lamb there will be change. 

And I hope dairy doesn't turn into a bubble. Prices are high there is a lot of debt. Only time will tell if it's too much.

The next 5 years should be good for agriculture and good for the south. The next round of growing our wage rates and salaries will be based on the country earning a living not borrowing it. NZ needs a government that knows how to do that.